It has been roughly six months since former President Bashar al-Assad fled Syria for Russia as rebel groups took control of cities across the country, including the capital city of Damascus, bringing an end to the more than five-decade rule of the Assad regime. Since the fall of Assad, Ahmed al-Sharaa, former leader of the rebel group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, has taken over as interim president.

To better understand what has happened since the fall of Assad and what comes next for Syria, we asked Barzani Scholar-in-Residence and Director of the Global Kurdish Initiative for Peace Yerevan Saeed a few questions.

In December 2024, a coalition of rebel forces ended the two-decade rule of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad when they seized control of Damascus. Can you get us up to speed on what has happened since?

Since the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024, Syria has entered a volatile and transformative post-authoritarian period. The collapse was swift and unexpected, led by a coalition of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army. Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, marking the abrupt end of over 50 years of dynastic rule. In the aftermath, HTS rapidly established control over Damascus and other key areas, initiating a dramatic political realignment with profound regional consequences.

In the six months since, HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa has consolidated power under the guise of a transitional government. A caretaker administration was first put in place, followed by the announcement of a 23-member interim cabinet on March 29, 2025. This was preceded by the March 13 signing of the Constitutional Declaration, which granted al-Sharaa sweeping executive authority for a five-year transition. The declaration allows him to appoint justices, legislate via decree, and dominate the newly formed government structure. Despite proclamations of transparency and democratic intent, the framework centralizes power in a manner reminiscent of past authoritarian regimes with cronies, close associates, and relatives appointed at the senior positions.

The new administration includes a mix of religious and ethnic representatives, such as a Christian woman, appointed Minister of Social Affairs and Labor, and a Kurd as Minister of Education. While this inclusion is presented as a step toward national reconciliation and international legitimacy, the fact remains it is largely symbolic. The whole cabinet came under severe criticism by minority groups who blasted the move as exclusionary rather than inclusionary because the HTS-led government selected individuals that aligned with its direction of governance instead of selecting individuals that truly represent these minorities.

HTS and its affiliated Salvation Government still hold direct control over nine key ministries, including defense, foreign affairs, and justice. This consolidation has raised concerns that the transitional phase may be less about democratic reform and more about institutionalizing HTS dominance.

What impact has the fall of Assad’s regime had on the broader region?

Geopolitically, the collapse of the Assad regime has disrupted the regional balance of power. Iran’s logistical corridor to Hezbollah has been dismantled, and Russia risks losing its military foothold in Syria. The change also challenges Iran's influence through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and proxy militias. Many analysts are comparing the fall of Assad to the collapse of the Berlin Wall, suggesting a potential unraveling of longstanding power structures across the Middle East.

Domestically, the initial euphoria following Assad’s ouster has given way to apprehension and uncertainty. Refugee return remains stalled, with some European countries halting new asylum claims amid fears of renewed instability. Minority communities that once aligned with the regime, like Alawites, Christians, and Druze, are particularly anxious about persecution or exclusion under the new HTS-dominated government. Kurds also fear being excluded. Meanwhile, Syria’s economic conditions continue to deteriorate, with inflation, unemployment, and lack of basic services driving ongoing migration toward Turkey and Europe.

While some positive steps have been taken, such as a tentative agreement with Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) leaders for integration into the state, critical questions remain unresolved. The government’s public commitments to inclusivity, human rights, women rights, and future constitutional reform are yet to be matched by structural guarantees or independent oversight. As a result, the political transformation remains fragile and contested, with early developments indicating a drift toward centralized, factional rule rather than genuine democratic transition.

While these changes open the door to Syria’s recovery and reacceptance on the world stage, lasting progress will depend on political stability, institutional reforms, and a careful balance between opportunity and oversight.

The European Union and the United States recently announced that they would lift sanctions on Syria. What is the significance of this decision, and how will it impact the country moving forward?

The recent moves by the US, EU, and the UK to ease sanctions on Syria is a significant shift in international policy and signal a tentative re-engagement with the country after years of isolation. These changes are aimed at supporting Syria’s fragile post-war recovery, improving humanitarian conditions, and beginning the process of reintegration into the global community. It also gives the new regime the benefit of the doubt to see how it might act given its very strong and troubling Islamic background.

In mid-May President Trump announced the US would lift many of its sanctions on Syria. This was followed by a new general license from the Treasury Department, which permits American businesses to engage a wide range of sectors including energy, telecommunications, healthcare, and education. It also authorizes dealings with 28 previously sanctioned individuals and entities and temporarily suspends certain secondary sanctions under the Caesar Act. However, core sanctions remain in place, especially those targeting individuals linked to the former Assad regime, terrorism, or human rights abuses.

The EU and the UK followed suit with a phased rollback, fully lifting their economic sanctions by May 21, though they kept restrictions on arms and surveillance tech. They eased restrictions on financial and energy sectors while still maintaining sanctions on some Syrian entities.

The impact was immediate. Syria’s currency has surged dramatically, and markets began to show signs of incremental recovery. Fuel and goods that had been scarce are becoming more available, and the World Bank has reopened access to loans after Syria cleared its outstanding debt. Prices for items like solar panels have already dropped, suggesting momentum in key infrastructure areas should political stability allows.

Humanitarian agencies, which had struggled to operate under broad sanctions despite technical exemptions, are expected to benefit as well. So easing restrictions should improve access to medicine, fuel, and essential supplies, and could even encourage some Syrian refugees to return if reconstruction picks up.

Still, the path ahead is far from smooth. The current relief is temporary and heavily conditional, depending on how the Syrian government behaves, especially in terms of human rights and regional stability. There's also concern about corruption and the misuse of incoming funds in a system still lacking transparency.

In the roughly six months of post-Assad Syria, what have been some significant political and social changes? What are some of the challenges the country has encountered?

Syria remains in a state of fragile transition with severe economic hardship, social unrest, and political uncertainty. Despite some positive signs, such as the increased availability of goods and fuel, the vast majority of Syrians continue to suffer. Ninety percent live below the poverty line, 70 percent rely on humanitarian aid, and basic services like electricity and fuel remain scarce. The Syrian pound has lost 99 percent of its value, and economic opportunities are almost nonexistent. While approximately 400,000 refugees and over one million internally displaced people have returned, they face harsh conditions, including limited access to housing, healthcare, electricity, and clean water, leading to continued displacement and instability.

On the civil liberty front, the country has not been promising. Although the interim leadership has not imposed strict religious laws, the temporary constitution lacks inclusivity and minority protections, raising fears of renewed authoritarianism. Moreover, the influence of former Islamist rebels and assaults on personal freedoms have further heightened these concerns. The media landscape has shifted away from state control, but the vacuum has been filled by unverified social media sources, contributing to widespread misinformation, sectarian tension, and disunity. Some of these medias have fueled sectarian violence, particularly against minorities such as Alawites, Druze, and Christians, resulting in mass casualties and displacements.

In education, reforms have removed Assad-era propaganda but replaced it with increased religious content, drawing criticism for being rushed and ideologically skewed. Access to education remains severely limited, with millions of children out of school and thousands of facilities non-operational.

These persistent divisions and crises continue to undermine Syria’s path toward recovery and reconciliation.