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Photograph of Xuguang Sheng

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Xuguang Sheng Professor CAS | Economics

Degrees
PhD, Economics, University at Albany, SUNY; BA, Economics, Renmin University of China

Bio
Xuguang Simon Sheng is a Professor of Economics at American University. He currently serves as the chair of the Department of Economics. His research interests include time series econometrics, machine learning, monetary policy, fiscal policy, energy policy, forecasting, measuring uncertainty and survey expectations.

He has published in Journal of Econometrics, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Review of Economics and Statistics, European Economic Review, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Journal of International Monetary and Finance, Journal of Accounting and Economics, Energy Economics and the Oxford Handbook on Economic Forecasting.

He has received the IIF-SAS Award from International Institute of Forecasters and SAS® in 2023, Isaac Kerstenetzky Award from Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) of Brazil in 2021 and Heinz König Young Scholar Award from Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) of Germany in 2010. He has served as an associate editor for International Journal of Forecasting and Oxford Open Economics, a guest editor for Energy Economics (2023, titled "Inflation Dynamics in a New Era of Energy Price Shocks"), International Journal of Forecasting (2022, titled "Economic Forecasting in Times of Covid-19," and 2019, titled "Forecasting Issues in Developing Economies"), and Journal of International Money and Finance (2025, titled "Uncertainty and Economic Activity"), and a co-organizer of ten international conferences.
See Also
Personal website
Google scholar webpage
SSRN webpage
For the Media
To request an interview for a news story, call AU Communications at 202-885-5950 or submit a request. Explore all AU Faculty Experts in our media guide.

Teaching

Spring 2025

  • ECON-322 Applied Econometrics I

  • ECON-424 Applied Econometrics II

Fall 2025

  • ECON-882 Sem: Empirical Macroeconomics

Scholarly, Creative & Professional Activities

Research Interests

Professor Sheng’s current research focuses on time series econometrics, machine learning, monetary policy, fiscal policy, energy policy, forecasting, measuring uncertainty and survey expectations.

Honors, Awards, and Fellowships

  • IIF-SAS Award for Research on Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters (IIF), 2023
  • Emerald Literati Awards for Outstanding Author Contribution, 2023
  • Isaac Kerstenetzky Award, Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) of Brazil, 2021
  • Mellon Faculty Development Award, American University, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2022
  • Heinz König Young Scholar Award, The Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim, 2010
  • Distinguished Doctoral Dissertation Award, SUNY at Albany, 2008
  • Pong Lee Award for Excellence in Teaching, SUNY at Albany, 2007

Selected Publications

  • Unit Cost Expectations: Firms’ Perspectives on Inflation (2025), with B. Meyer, European Economic Review, vol. 174, 104955, pp. 1-22.
  • Inattention and the Impact of Monetary Policy (2023), with S. Abo-Zaid and Z. An, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 38, pp. 623-643.
  • Stock Prices and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus (2022), with S. Davis and D. Liu, IMF Economic Reveiw, vol. 70, pp. 32-67.
  • Expectation Formation Following Large Unexpected Shocks (2020), with S. Baker and T. McElroy, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 102, pp. 287-303.
  • Measuring Global and Country-specific Uncertainty (2018), with E. Ozturk, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 88, pp. 276-295. Dataset (.xlsx file)
  • Truncated Product Methods for Panel Unit Root Tests (2013), with J. Yang, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 75, pp. 624-636.
  • A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty (2012), with M. Thevenot, Journal of Accounting and Economics, vol. 53, pp. 21-33.
  • Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link (2010), with K. Lahiri, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 25, pp. 514-538.
  • Evolution of Forecast Disagreement in a Bayesian Learning Model (2008), with K. Lahiri, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 144, pp. 325-340.

 

Work In Progress

  • The Impact of Labor Market Matching Efficiency on Inflation Dynamics, with S. Abo-Zaid and B. Samaniego de la Parra
  • Policy Intervention and Chinese Stock Market During the COVID-19 Pandemic, with S. Davis D. Liu, and Y. Wang, NBER Working Paper No. 33485
  • Causal Effects of Uncertainty: Evidence from Military Base Realignment and Closures, with J.A. Levy and G. Mathy
  • Central Bank Information Effect: New Survey Evidence, with M. Wei
  • Bimodality in Subjective Probabilistic Expectations, with B. Meyer and E. Mihaylov
  • Economic Policy Uncertainty in China since 1949: The View from Mainland Newspapers, with S. Davis and D. Liu
  • Cross-country Evidence on the Revenue Impact of Tax Reforms, with D. Amaglobeli, and V. Crispolti, IMF Working Paper No. 2022/199
  • Firms’ Resilience to Energy Shocks and Response to Fiscal Incentives: Assessing the Impact of 2022 Energy Crisis, with D. Amaglobeli and others, IMF Working Paper No. 2024/27